How Things Stand

Michelle Grattan writes in today's Age that Australia remains divided over how Prime Minister Kevin Rudd is handling the Oceanic Viking ordeal.

The latest Nielsen poll has Rudd's disapproval ratings up 5 points and shows that 44 per cent of Australians think his government is too soft on asylum-seekers.

On the other side, Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull has had a small rise in his approval ratings, but the Coalition's primary vote has only increased 1 point, to 38 per cent. Which means they are still 7 points behind Labor.

47 per cent of Australians don't agree with the Prime Minister's approach on this issue and only 45 per cent approve.

Rudd will be pleased to find that the poll showed just 13 per cent thought his Government's policy was too harsh and 37 per cent of respondents said it was about right.

This poll was taken over a three-day period and will be welcome relief for Rudd after the Newspoll last week which showed much more dramatic results against his government.

Interestingly, Grattan shows that in 2001, the Tampa crisis gave prime minister John Howard an approval rating boost. His approval rose 11 points to 57 per cent.

Rudd is rapidly taking on water on this issue.

All you can do is wonder, when will he take action to end the stand-off? He has dispatched Foreign Minister Smith to Sri Lanka - little more than a publicity stunt - and continues to try and change the story by attacking the Opposition on climate change.

When your strategy is failing this brilliantly, maybe it is time for a rethink.

Rudd is clearly trying to wait it out for another of his big wins over Turnbull, but it is hard to imagine where it is going to come from.

Eventually the boat has to leave Indonesia, and a government being crippled by 78 asylum seekers will be seen as pretty pathetic.

Walk This Way

The Australian will this week continue its series of articles on the power and influence of Prime Minister Kevin Rudd.

The series began in Saturday's Weekend Australian Magazine with Cameron Stewart's article, titled Command and Control. Stewart believes Rudd is Australia's most powerful Prime Minister yet, because of the power structures he has built around the ALP, Parliament House and the political debate in general.

Stewart spoke to several insiders and outsiders for the story, including Rudd's chief-of-staff, Alistair Jordan, and press secretary, Lachlan Harris. Comically neither staffer is prepared to be quoted directly - but you can be sure they were happy to speak highly of their leader, brief Stewart on how hard he is working, what time he gets to the office and what his next plans are for yet another advancing of Australian fair.

ABC political editor Chris Uhlman - obviously not worshiping in the temple of Rudd - was very much on the record.

"He holds all the prizes, and anyone who wants to advance must pay homage to him. He bludgeons alternative options to death, and rules his own by both terrorising them and uniting them by kicking a hopeless foe that cannot wound him.

"He survives because he has been on the right side of every argument for the last two years and is a much better politician that anyone imagined."

More to follow on these stories this week, hopefully including some new material from Team Rudd. What do you think? Is Rudd the real deal, or are we just having trouble seeing alternatives?

US House Passes Health Care Legislation

Today, the United States House of Representatives has finally passed legislation for the first time providing health care to almost every American. A victory which has come after almost 100 years of false starts.

The house resolution was passed 220 votes to 215, representing 219 Democrats voting to approve the measure while 39 Democrats voted no. There was one Republican vote for the bill, Rep. Joseph Cao of Louisiana.

Politico described the bill as having "a steep cost – both in dollars, $1.2 trillion, and political capital – but Democrats hailed its passage as the next chapter in a governing legacy that produced Medicare and Social Security."

Obama's promises on health care reform were a signature legislative priority from early in his campaign. He visited the Capitol on Saturday to pledge support for the bill, telling his party to “answer the call of history”.

What exactly is included in the bill? It establishes a public health insurance choice to compete with traditional private insurers who have long dominated the market, and it requires private employers to offer health insurance to their workers.

Politico says the path ahead remains shaky for the legislation. "Party leaders need to mend the bruised feelings that will linger from this debate before they can address whatever legislation the Senate can produce."

This is a big victory for Obama and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi - both in need of a win on this issue. While Congress has low approval ratings and Obama's are slipping, the passage of this bill will give momentum back to the Democrats. If the Senate can pass their bill before Christmas, Obama will enter 2010 strong and ready for more fights on the economy, climate change and education as he prepare for the mid-term elections in November.

Much, much more to come on these issues. Stay tuned and leave your comments.

On The Road With Hillary

Time Magazine has an interesting new photo essay of Hillary Clinton's recent visit to Russia.

It's worth a quick look, and don't forget the brilliant Time White House Photo Blog.

Ghosts of The Lodge

With worrying regularity, former PM Paul Keating pops his head up to complain about something that is on his mind this week. Most recently he has complained about the Chinese food in Canberra, Kevin Rudd being a "good-two-shoes" and called Peter Costello a "policy bum".

Patrick Carlyon in the Herald Sun is having none of it.

"Little kids get drugs for Attention Deficit Disorder. Yet the condition goes dangerously untreated in former statesmen who cannot grasp that they are no longer powerful.

"The other day, former prime ministers Paul Keating and Malcolm Fraser offered their take on Statler and Waldorf, the old men chirping from the wings in The Muppets."

Physical resemblance aside, Keating can't expect to be taken seriously as part of a national political debate when his comments are so obviously designed to make headlines.

If you want to reengage with the political dialogue, do it now - 13 years later - while the ALP have government. Howard is gone, Latham looks more crazy than you and your signature issues are still relevant: the economy, Indigenous affairs and the Republic.

Otherwise, sit on your balcony while the rest of us are looking up and laughing.

You Are What You Read

Read these articles today:

Christian Kerr on Rudd's mistaken media strategy:

"The Prime Minister has made a major miscalculation with his media blitz on asylum-seekers. He thinks if he explains what he is trying to do, ordinary voters will understand. But they're not listening. They don't care what he's trying to do. They just want him to do it.

"The professional political class isn't listening either. They're interested only in that he keeps on talking and what it means."


Julian Burnside QC on xenophobic Australia:

"It is true, broadly, that Australia is not racist, but the success of governments and oppositions in whipping up fear and loathing for asylum seekers is, in part, xenophobic. Xenophobia, the fear of strangers, is different from racism. The fact that multiculturalism has succeeded in Australia does not disprove xenophobia. Apart from any other argument, there are Australians who object to our multiculturalism. But in addition, migrants who come to Australia are encouraged to assimilate quickly and they cease to be strangers. By contrast, boat people who are locked away in desert camps or remote islands, who are held behind razor wire, who are treated as a threat to the fabric of our society, are doomed to remain strangers as long as we treat them so. All the evidence points to Australians being xenophobic."

and

Student and working journalist Connor O'Brien on the slow death of higher education:

"I remember speaking to the editor of a local youth culture magazine who told me, “People can’t be f….ed anymore. I try to promote a show or an exhibition, and I’ll get hundreds of people clicking ‘Attending’ on Facebook, but they just won’t show up. You also have people who think it’s enough to become a ‘Fan’ of a local artist on Facebook, but then not buy any of that artist’s work, because they feel they don’t need to – they’ve already shown they’re a fan, by clicking a button. What I’ve realised, increasingly, is that what people do and say online is completely meaningless.”

As you were.

Dear Prime Minister

Dear Prime Minister,

Sorry to bother you, I know you're working really hard all the time - you keep reminding me by emailing at 3am and backgrounding the press on what time you wake up.

I thought I should drop you a quick note to say hey, and to give you a heads on on the asylum seekers issue.

This is your opportunity to become one of Australia's great prime ministers.

It's not looking good right now, and as you know we don't always see eye-to-eye on some of your policies and media strategies, but if you make an effort to end this developing saga - today - the political damage will be nothing compared to the fantastic feeling of knowing you have done the right thing.

Just between you and me, the right thing to do is bring these poor people to Christmas Island and live up to Australia's international responsibilities. Don't be like Wilson and play to fear and prejudice: there are no terrorists here, just desperate people looking for their dignity and freedom.

The tabloids and shock-jocks won't admit it, but if you don't fix this thing up soon it is going to be a dark spot on your government's record.

Remember our chat during the Tampa crisis, or when you were saying the Liberals were the party of children behind razor wire? This is worse for the simple fact that you said you were going to do better.

You can't attack them continually and then do exactly the same thing. Well, you can and it will be easy, but that makes you a hypocrite and an idiot.

If you do the right thing, and let these people come to Australia to prove they are real refugees, you will be remembered as a real leader because you did the unpopular thing because it was right. You've got the economy right so far and are doing a pretty good job on some other areas so don't be like Tony and Bill.

Stand for something now, especially since Malcolm will be lucky to win the votes of his own MPs at the next election and your popularity is somewhere between 68 and 71 per cent.

Give my best to T and the kids.
Talk soon,
politics.tom

State of Their Union

Barack and Michelle Obama have given their first joint interview from the White House, for this weekend's New York Times Sunday Magazine.

It is not really a political piece, but interesting for some insight into their time so far in Washington and their 17 years of marriage. Speaking of Obama's first campaign for the Illinois State Legislature:

"Michelle became his most energetic volunteer anyway. “She did everything,” Craig Robinson says. Every Saturday morning, she and Davila knocked on doors for petition signatures that would put Barack on the ballot.

"As a first-time candidate, Barack could be stiff; friends remember him talking to voters with his arms folded, looking defensive. Michelle warmed everyone up, including her husband. “She is really Bill, and he is really Hillary,” one friend recently put it. But like Hillary Clinton — and countless other political wives — Michelle sometimes took on the role of enforcer. If a volunteer promised to gather 300 petition signatures, “299 did not work because 300 was the goal,” Harwell says. “You met the wrath of Michelle.”

While Therese Rein is hardly the standard political spouse, given that she is a multi-millionaire businesswoman, she has in the last little while started to follow Mrs Obama's lead on taking up causes and giving political interviews including last night on The 7.30 Report.

It's great to get to know the wife of the Prime Minister a bit more and her work for various causes is admirable. It will be interesting to see if Mrs Rein takes as active a role in public relations and promotion of charities. Her giving interviews with journalists like Kerry O'Brien is certainly a new media strategy for Rudd.

While you are watching the interview - check out Foreign Minister Smith squirming his way through the boat people issue.

Tweet Talk on Rudd

Crikey's Bernard Keane tweets from Question Time today:

"Rudd running a 100 miles an hour from that boat thing off in some other country somewhere else, which he knows nothing about. At all. OK?"

Cameron: A Changing of the Guard?

Peter Wilson writes in The Australian that the latest Times opinion poll gives David Cameron and the Tories a 40 per cent to 30 per cent lead over Labour, "feeding the assumption that Cameron will soon begin the sort of decade-long rule that has become the modern norm in Britain and the two nations with the most similar political systems, Canada and Australia."

But Wilson counsels, "don't bet on it just yet."

While he believes it is too late for Labour to ditch Brown for another leader without quite so much baggage, he argues that the danger for Cameron is that an "outdated electoral system and his own political vulnerabilities could see him stuck with a hung parliament while facing an unusually tough few years to govern."

"Cameron's challenge is compounded by Britain's ridiculous failure to regularly redraw its electoral map, leading to biased boundaries that helped the Tories under Margaret Thatcher but are now giving Labour a free kick worth at least 4 per cent of the vote."

Wilson makes a good case, but as the expenses controversy continues to cut into Gordon Brown's sleep and things like hospitals and schools keep getting worse, the media won't let up in reminding the electorate just how much worse Britain is getting.

In Australia it has become known as the 'it's time' factor - all in all it is very hard to believe Cameron won't be moving to Number 10 next year.

Hands Up If You Have A Question

During the Australian political controversy now known as 'Utegate' something interesting happened on Facebook. Usually the home of drunken photos, annoying quizes and pointless groups, for the first time in it's short life, News Feeds were full of updates about Question Time and the CS Lewis inspired character known as Godwin Grech.

Young people were enjoying the sport that is question time, and using the university exams period to tune in to see what interesting development the next sitting would bring.

Parliamentary question time, as regular viewers would know, is unavoidably brutal. There is no more difficult forum in which to speak. In front, there are organized interjectors. Behind, there are colleagues shouting back. Each member of the audience, whether from the other side of the parliament, one’s own side or the press gallery is an expert on what should have been said better. Then there’s the speaker of the parliament sitting in judgment about whether what’s said is permissible under the standing orders. That’s what ministers and shadow ministers have to take for granted. It’s the crucible in which our leaders and potential leaders are tested and it ultimately helps the Australian people to know who has the toughness to cope with the challenges our country must face.

Tony Abbott has written an interesting open letter to Julia Gillard for The Spectator Australia about question time, and some ideas of how to reform this aspect of our governance. The piece is obviously political, but the section below is worth reading, if not the whole piece.

"Question Time's specific purpose is to enable MPs to hold ministers to account. If they want to, ministers can avoid the media or they might have something on their leader that makes them indispensible. The one thing they can’t do, though, under a Westminster system, is avoid facing up to the parliament.

"That’s why Question Time matters. It’s the one mechanism which guarantees ministerial accountability to the people. When ministers refuse to answer opposition questions and use questions from their own side to launch lengthy attacks on the opposition rather than to explain their own actions, the parliament is demeaned and, more importantly, democracy is compromised. When this happens, it’s the opposition’s job to do everything it can to ensure that the government acts more reasonably."

Abbott goes on to discuss Gillard's performance on spinning "building the education revolution" and explains that when Wayne Swan was manager of opposition business in the House, he called for time limits on ministerial answers. Gillard did the same in 2006, and Abbott believes it should happen now.

He also raises the need for an independent speakership.

"It couldn’t quite be the House of Commons model because our parliament is too small for the speaker’s parliamentary seat not to be contested. Even so, it would be possible to alternate the speakership each term between the two main parties and to require a super majority to overturn rulings. Not establishing one might be considered a small failing among John Howard’s many achievements but the issue should certainly be revisited by the next Coalition government."

What do you think?

Kevin Rudd: All Talk on Boat People

Tony Abbott is fond of describing Kevin Rudd as “allergic to making tough decisions.”

The re-emergence of the asylum seekers debate gave Rudd the perfect opportunity to prove his critics wrong – instead he came up with a pathetic plan, which shirks Australia’s international responsibilities and proves he is all talk and little action.

Rudd loves reminding the Liberals of their terrible record on this issue, including the so called “Pacific Solution”, but this week he has set up his own “solution” by paying a bounty to Indonesia for each of the boat people they take off our hands.

Rudd wrote in The Monthly: "Another great challenge of our age is asylum-seekers. The biblical injunction to care for the stranger in our midst is clear. The parable of the Good Samaritan is but one of many which deal with the matter of how we should respond to a vulnerable stranger in our midst."

He must have forgotten about the Good Samaritan when he pull out the credit card to pay huge sums to a country with a human rights record that is charitably described a mixed.

Paying Indonesia to take asylum seekers is not a real solution to this big problem. It will continue to be a problem for Kevin Rudd, a problem Malcolm Turnbull and a problem for the other 21,999,998 of us as well.

Rudd went to the election saying that he would do a better job than John Howard in providing leadership and direction for our country. He claimed that Australians deserved new leadership and fresh ideas, but on this issue he has failed to provide either.

He knows the Liberals will try and maximise the issue for their own benefit, without putting forward any alternative at all, so it’s policy making by duck and cover.

The reality is that his approval ratings are never going to be higher than they are now, and if Rudd can’t make an unpopular decision at his peak, what will it be like when the polls go down?

Ted Kennedy: All Things Must Pass

From Politico:

"It was a place where nervous freshmen learned about the past half-century in the Senate, where historic legislative deals were cut, where personal friendships were made and where his dogs roamed freely.

"Outside the office now, a handful of staffers come and go. The placard out front that once bore his name is gone; the only sign that he was there is the seal of the commonwealth of Massachusetts that still hangs on the tall wooden door.

"Room 317 in the Russell Senate Office Building — the office Ted Kennedy occupied longer than any other in his 47-year Senate career — will close this weekend, two months after the Massachusetts Democrat died at the age of 77."

US Senate rules state that when a Senator dies, his or her office remains open for 60 days. This period for Senator Kennedy has just past so his office will close this weekend.

Much of Kennedy's legacy in the Senate was formed during his years in this office. The piece also discusses briefly the hideaways, small spaces Senators use around Capitol Hill to avoid having to return to their offices between votes.

Obama OutFoxed?

Up and coming journalist and politico Aaron Flanagan writes on Crikey.com.au that Barack Obama and Fox News are at war.

Flanagan writes: "Skin and hair has been flying in a bout of door-stop fisticuffs between a couple of American heavyweight media bovver boys. In the blue corner, weighing in with Barack Obama’s “road to socialism”, is the White House. In the red corner, weighing in with a cabal of right-wing shock jocks, is Fox News.

"In light of the pummelling being received by the White House from Fox News’ Beck, Hannity, O’Reilly et al, they decided to pull their advertising and opted to view the Murdoch-owned channel like “an opposition party.”

“We’re going to treat them the way we would treat an opponent,” said Anita Dunn, the White House communications director, in a telephone interview on Sunday.

“As they are undertaking a war against Barack Obama and the White House, we don’t need to pretend that this is the way that legitimate news organisations behave.”

It's an interesting piece and well worth a read, but might leave you wondering what the Bush Administration would have done if it rumbled with the media outlets which declared war on W's White House. There wouldn't have been enough time in the day for much else.

The Kevin Rudd Drinking Game

If you're playing the Kevin Rudd drinking game, please note there is a new addition to your game card.

Instructions are as follows: take one shot of hard liquor when you hear Rudd say and of the following phrases:

Working Families, New Leadership, Fiscal Conservative, 300 billion, I don't give a F--- what you F------ think, where's my hairdryer?, not out of the woods yet .... and now "taking a hard line against illegal immigration."

Be careful, he will talk you under the table.

Feel like an Ice Cream?

Two interesting thoughts on contemporary politics for you today.

The first is something that you might have read already, but has been missing from politics.tom until now. Josh Gordon discusses how political parties win our votes, comparing and contrasting Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull and using a great example from economic theory to illustrate his point.

"A classic example is where two identical ice-cream carts compete on a crowded beach. Customers are evenly distributed along the beach, and always buy ice-creams from the closest cart.

"So long as one of the carts is located to the left or right of the centre, the other can always claim a larger share of customers by edging towards the rival seller.

"Such competitive pressures ultimately drive both sellers to the centre of the beach, where each gets a 50 per cent share of the market.

"The optimal position from the customers' point of view would be if one cart positioned itself one-quarter of the way down the beach and the other three-quarters. Each of the two carts would still claim a 50 per cent share of the market, but customers would have to walk no more than one-quarter of the length of the beach to get an ice-cream, instead of up to half.

"The same theory can also be applied to politics: competition to maximise votes forces political parties to converge in the centre of the political spectrum, with minimal product differentiation despite strong branding and marketing."

And the second is also older. Michelle Grattan's political analysis in The Age may be famous but you won't have read this speech she gave on political leadership unless you were present when it was delivered in June 2005.

Speaking about Paul Keating's famous Placido Domingo speech, Grattan writes:

"Keating wrote the notes for what became a landmark speech on a serviette. Here was the impatient leader-in-waiting, telling us what the practice of the leadership craft should be all about, and how in Australia everyone, the whole damn lot of them, even that “trier” John Curtin, had fallen short.

"Leadership was “not about being popular”, the frustrated treasurer declared; “it’s about being right and about being strong ... doing what the nation requires, making profound judgements about profound issues”.

"Keating made leadership sound like the equivalent of dressing in evening clothes every day. After he got the job, he didn’t quite live up to the idealised picture, as anyone who has read Don Watson’s grand book knows. He made some profound judgements, but also chased votes with some lax fiscal decisions he’d have lambasted in earlier years."

Both pieces discuss how our parties represent us and should political leaders be out in front of the electorate or should they be following community sentiment. The answer is probably both, but real political talent is never easy to explain on paper.

Have a read and leave your thoughts.

Virginia Trioli on Barnaby Joyce

Watch closely and you'll see what ABC News Breakfast host thinks of Barnaby Joyce.

Hey, Virginia... the red light means you're on air.

When Less is More

Annabel Crabb's report of yesterday's sitting in Parliament is pretty funny reading.

"The Opposition blustered a bit about interest rates, then began seriously to pester the PM about whether the increase in boat people was related to his softening (or, as the Prime Minister puts it, "toughening") of immigration policies.

"This annoyed Rudd. You could tell, because he started hurling figures about like an angry chef flinging cutlery.

"When the PM gets cross like this, he tends to concentrate on numbers, with the result his grasp on language can suffer somewhat.

"It is important to place his question entirely in its numerical context!" he griped of the Opposition Leader."

Crabb writes that Joe Hockey was the real winner in Parliament yesterday, and that he names all his kids after private schools. Great stuff.

Also from the news, Brendan Nelson (above) took a novel approach to thanking his former constituents in Bradfield. Yes, he is standing on the side of a busy road with a sign.

Sometimes less is more.

To-Do List

No homework today, except:

Read Leo Shanahan on the tiniest little victory of them all.

and listen to The Political Scene podcast.

That is all.

"Sometimes Long Stories Have Short Morals"

Every so often politics should be put aside in favour of interesting thought about other matters. Even better if it is the kind of brilliant writing that pops up occasionally, demanding to be shared.

In that vein, Adam Gopnik gives an excellent account of The Deyfus Affair. It's brilliantly written and a must-read for those who don't know much about this important event in French history. The whole article really needs to be posted, but below is just a small section.

"It’s hard to remain dry-eyed when reading about Dreyfus’s next five years. Overnight the most despised man in the country he worshipped, he was torn from his wife and children and sent to rot on a tiny, desolate island in the Atlantic, in a prison altered to prevent him from ever seeing the ocean that surrounded him. (It must also be said, with Begley, that his treatment was by modern American standards benevolent. Convicted of the worst crime imaginable, selling out France to the Germans, he was still given almost all the books he wanted to read from and all the paper he needed to write on, and he used both.) Because of his always cold and correct demeanor, and in part because the regime of silence that was imposed on him at Devil’s Island left him for the rest of his life with a rasping voice, the idea has been spread that Dreyfus was an essentially mediocre, if gallant, man. The image is far from the truth; awkward and uncharismatic he may have been, but Dreyfus was what we now call deep, a serious and cultivated soul. In captivity, shackled to his bed at night, he saved his sanity by reading: he read Tolstoy, Nietzsche, the French classics, and made intelligent notes on them. More than anything, he read Shakespeare. He worked his way through all the great tragedies—eventually and laboriously teaching himself to read them in the original—and found in those stories a sense of life and a language adequate to his own condition. He copied out Othello’s lines on honor, and sent them to his wife, Lucie.

"He was, as far as he knew, utterly alone and friendless. In truth, he had one supreme ally at home—his brother Mathieu, who had stayed in the family textile business, and was Alfred’s main support. Mathieu worked brilliantly and tirelessly for his martyred brother. Pretty much everyone in authority had an uneasy sense that Dreyfus had been railroaded, and many who had no particular liking for Jews still felt that anti-Semitism was something worse than false; they thought it was vulgar. Early on, Mathieu made a key ally of Auguste Scheurer-Kestner, the vice-president of the French Senate, who strongly intimated that he knew that Mathieu’s brother was innocent but could not say why. (The reason for his confidence came out later: in an incident that one would think possible only in the Internet age, one of Esterhazy’s stockbrokers had seen the bordereau reproduced in a newspaper, and at once recognized the handwriting of his ne’er-do-well client.)

"Mathieu displayed a kind of genius in seeing that the case for justice was more persuasive than the case for vengeance—that it was necessary to take the position that an injustice had been done by error, rather than that an evil had been done on purpose. The barrier to his brother’s vindication, he grasped, was less anti-Semitism than the perceived assault on the honor of the Army."

The piece is actually a book review, which discusses three recent books on the topic but Gopnik gives all the background to the 'Affaire' which gripped France at the time and contains a warning for contemporary society. Read the full piece and listen to Gopnik being interviewed in the New Yorker Out Loud podcast.

Churchill on Success

Sometimes it seems like all Winston Churchill did was make quotable quotes - to be used for decades in all kinds of ways. This one popped up in Melbourne last week and although one might be skeptical that the great man actually said it, it's worth sharing.

Worth reading is John Keegan's 'Winston Churchill: a life' published in 2002. It's not too long and gives a great overview of his many ups and downs and his contribution to Britain and the world.

Bob Ellis on Obama's Peace Prize

Bob Ellis responds to criticism of Obama's Nobel Prize.

"No one complained much when Martin Luther King got his Nobel Peace Prize in 1964. Though he was only thirty-five and he'd affected no country but his own, and his 'I Have A Dream' speech was barely a year old, and America was in racial turmoil for many more years, it was not thought premature. He was such a good speaker and had with his oratory changed many minds and his cause was good. And J. Edgar Hoover thought the award was 'contemptible' but few agreed with him."

An interesting argument and worth reading - keep the comments for and against the prize coming.

Barack Obama: Nobel Laureate

President Barack Obama sent this message to his supporters today:

"This morning, Michelle and I awoke to some surprising and humbling news. At 6 a.m., we received word that I'd been awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for 2009.

To be honest, I do not feel that I deserve to be in the company of so many of the transformative figures who've been honored by this prize -- men and women who've inspired me and inspired the entire world through their courageous pursuit of peace.

But I also know that throughout history the Nobel Peace Prize has not just been used to honor specific achievement; it's also been used as a means to give momentum to a set of causes.

That is why I've said that I will accept this award as a call to action, a call for all nations and all peoples to confront the common challenges of the 21st century. These challenges won't all be met during my presidency, or even my lifetime. But I know these challenges can be met so long as it's recognized that they will not be met by one person or one nation alone.

This award -- and the call to action that comes with it -- does not belong simply to me or my administration; it belongs to all people around the world who have fought for justice and for peace. And most of all, it belongs to you, the men and women of America, who have dared to hope and have worked so hard to make our world a little better.

So today we humbly recommit to the important work that we've begun together. I'm grateful that you've stood with me thus far, and I'm honored to continue our vital work in the years to come.

Thank you,
President Barack Obama"

Already there is much debate about Obama's prize and if his ambitious agenda, which after only 9 months in the White House, is mostly still a list of ambitions is deserving enough of the Peace Prize. As the President pointed out in his message, the Prize will arguably add momentum to his diplomatic efforts and policies for nuclear non-proliferation but should the prize have been awarded so soon?

This only adds to the need for Obama to get results in the United States and around the world. Health care and the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan dominate his time, but the peace prize must remind him of the huge responsibilities his office affords. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict and diplomatic tangos with Iran and North Korea are the tip of a very big iceberg for the US today, and if his presidency is to be considered a success he has a lot of work to do.

Was Obama the right choice? Leave your thoughts.

Richard Holbrooke: Dispatches from the World

George Packer's profile of Richard Holbrooke in last week's New Yorker is worth an hour in a comfortable chair.

Holbrooke has served under every Democratic President since John F. Kennedy, and is currently Barack Obama's Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan, despite aligning with Hilary Clinton in the Democratic primaries.

Packer's long profile follows Holbrook on trips to the region, meeting with heads of state and senior members of the Obama Administration. It paints a picture of a man in his last job, trying to change the course of history for the troubled region and America's presence there.

"The election on August 20th was a disaster that could change the course of the war. The evidence of fraud by Karzai’s campaign was so overwhelming that it threatened to render the entire vote illegitimate. Publicly, Holbrooke hailed the election; privately, colleagues said, he suggested that a runoff between Karzai and his main challenger, Abdullah Abdullah, might be necessary for the appearance of legitimacy. Karzai got wind of these words, and, when he and Holbrooke met, the Afghan President exploded, accusing the Americans of plotting to drive him out of office. Since then, Holbrooke has maintained a detached public stance, in order not to antagonize America’s partner in Kabul and undermine the Afghan government’s standing. He even compared Afghanistan’s vast state-sponsored vote theft to an electoral controversy in Minnesota, saying, “That happens in democracies, even when they are not in the middle of a war.”

The portrait Packer draws of Holbrooke makes him seem like a diplomat from another time, and his engagement with his task and the people involved is impressive.

Find a comfy chair and read this one.

Rates Rise Reactions

Australia is now the first of the G20 countries to raise interest rates as the recovery from the global financial crisis continues.

Analysts believe there are more increases are on the way - some say as soon as Melbourne Cup day.

The 25-basis-point rise lifts the cash rate to 3.25 per cent, which on a $300,000 mortgage means an addition of $40 to the average monthly payment.

For some reaction to the rise, politics.tom asked two new home owners their thoughts on the development and how it would impact on their budgets.

B, who has just bought a first home in Melbourne's east was asked his reaction to the RBA increasing the official cash rate?

“I am disappointed as I have just entered in to a 30 year mortgage and don’t think it was necessary given Australia’s economic performance and relative interest rate position compared to other countries.”

Were you expecting the rise? What do you think will happen in coming months?

“The RBA had softened us up to expect it but I was still not sure it would eventuate as it seems to be unwarranted.

“The current RBA board has a history of making attention seeking decisions rather than rational ones so who knows what will happen in current months. This can only make it harder for our exporters and compound the impact on construction of removing the first home owners grant. It will put more pressure on unemployment and stifle the busiest retail period of the year during already sluggish conditions.

“I am nervous about what will happen because it seems unpredictable and contrary to the continued fiscal stimulation from the government and the government’s assertion that stimulus is necessary.”

And H, who along with her fiancé has just purchased a first home in the south-east says she was expecting the rise eventually.

“I hoped it would not come to soon. I think there will be more rises to come in the months ahead if the economy continues to show improvement.”

What impact will the rise have on your budget?

“We planed for a slight rise, so while it will definitely mean tightening the budget. It will make unexpected costs like car tires, dentist etc. more difficult.”

Will you have to make cuts to your spending and if so, what will you cut?

“Our home loan is very new so we already have been making lots of cuts to our usual spending. Watching the little things like how much we eat out, the phone bill, staying home to drink with friend rather than paying bar prices for an evening out.... its the little things that make the big difference.”

Family Photo

The daughters of Spanish Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriquez Zapatero, pictured above, don't look the same as people usually photographed with Barack and Michelle.

The photo above shows the two girls, Laura, 16, and Alba, 13, with the Obamas and their parents in New York last week. The photo was uploaded, according to White House protocol of official visits, on to the US State department's Flickr page.

The only problem is that there are laws in Spain preventing images of the Prime Minister's children being published and this was the first time the country got a glimpse of the daughters.

Of course the images made their way onto several newspaper front pages and was quickly removed from the White House and State Department websites.

Great photo though. Clearly the Obamas are enjoying themselves.

Julia Gillard: commence the Bio wars

Hostile fire has commenced in the Julia Gillard biography wars.

In a strange move, The Monthly had as its cover story a review of Jacqueline Kent's The Making of Julia Gillard by none other than Christine Wallace of Breakfast Politics fame.

Why is this unusual? Because Wallace is currently writing her own biography of Gillard, due to be released next year.

While writing the review of Kent's book might be unwise, Wallace is correct when she calls the book a "friendly political quickie", and suggests, "The Making of Julia Gillard provides a plain-vanilla account of Gillard’s progress from Gillard’s point of view and an uncomplicated description of some arcane aspects of Labor’s factional history. If the truth is in the surface of things – as André Gide remarked – then Kent has done a good job of description without analysis. That will be fine with most of the people involved in this book, none more so than Gillard herself."

For someone who thought they didn't know very much about Gillard, this book is a surprise in just how unsurprising it is. Kent recounts Gillard's formative years, university and student political activities, her years in the law and rise to the top of the ALP - but leaves out anything we didn't already know about the Deputy Prime Minister.

The extracts of the book which appeared in the Fairfax papers recently contained only old stories about Gillard and her rise to power - it turns out they were the best parts of the book.

It's hard to write anything new about someone as prominent as Gillard when you only have two interviews in which to probe your subject. Let's hope more about Gillard comes into the public domain before she becomes Prime Minister.

And let's hope Jacqueline Kent gets the cover of The Monthly for her review of Wallace's book.

Malcolm Turnbull: Crash or Crash Through?

Malcolm Turnbull could be forgiven for feeling a bit jet lagged this week.

A week of networking in London and lying on the beach in Italy must seem like a million years ago for the embattled Opposition Leader.

Turnbull is often described as have a “crash or crash through” approach to politics but his statement about quitting politics altogether if his party room does not back his position on climate change was misguided.

By confronting dissenters in his own party in such a public way, all Turnbull did was remind the electorate that his position is far from secure and that his party is all over the shop on an emissions trading scheme.

Given his low approval ratings, Turnbull should be reminded that forecasting a change in leadership for the Opposition is Kevin Rudd’s job, and he has more than enough help from Wilson Tuckey and Cory Bernardi without Turnbull pitching in himself.

With worrying regularity, Turnbull scores another spectacular own goal which the political talking heads chalk up to his adversarial style, but without engaging his backbench he can expect to have his message crowded out by calls for resignation from the dissenting chorus.

In addition, the foolish logic of the “anonymous smartarses” should be examined in the cold light of day.

By failing to negotiate an emissions trading scheme with the Government, the Coalition will be turning its back on the 70 per cent of Australians who want action on climate change, to say nothing of failing one of their key constituencies: big business.

The issue is already lost for the Coalition, and all the Nationals and carping backbenchers are doing is making sure they lose the election so they can also lose Turnbull.

The difference between Turnbull and his new friend, British prime minister-in-waiting, David Cameron is that Cameron’s party understands that Conservative shouldn’t be a byword for stuck in the mud.

If nothing else, politics is all about perception and the Tory’s know that on the whole, the public has made up its mind on climate change.

Clinging to scientific ambiguity and hiding in the dust storm of Opposition won’t get the Coalition to the position of Cameron’s all but inevitable move to 10 Downing Street.

Turnbull was never going to have an easy time.

The post-Howard Liberal party is yet to find its feet and the Nationals are shielding their eyes from crippling drought, bone-dry river systems and the fact that the only measure of successful political parties is the winning of elections.

The question remains: will Turnbull crash or crash through?

Rule on Shorten: As Promised

Andrew Rule's piece on Bill Shorten came up a little bit short.

Some interesting insights but not too much on the promise of the man often suggested as a future ALP leader.

"He avoids the numbing bureaucratic jargon many politicians use to muddy their tracks, instead nimbly linking catchy phrases to amusing asides to avoid specific answers that might cause headaches back at headquarters. It's all deceptively casual, an assured performance by the debater who learned at union meetings how to disarm an audience.

''Yes, Brad,'' he says to a man with his hand up. Then it's ''Bev'' and ''Col'' and at least three more locals he knows by name - all recalled from previous visits. Doubly flattering, he also asks their opinions: smarter than offering too many himself.

When ''Shirley'' complains about the lack of local facilities for elderly people, he says: ''Well, our Government has put up the age pension - but you wouldn't be old enough for that!'' In 20 words or less, it's the perfect political parry: a compliment, a joke, a political plug and a non-answer deflecting a potentially negative view."

What did you think?

Inside the PM's Office... again

Yet another look inside the office of Prime Minister Kevin Rudd.

Katharine Murphy was allowed access inside the PM's office, as well as to his staff although the piece offers little more than the usual lines. They're all young, they're all men, they work really hard and they love KRudd.

Murphy writes, ''Kevin is not an HR manager,'' says one senior figure. ''He is hands-on and unpredictable with working hours. He can rest, but they can't. Coming out of opposition, some people didn't make the grade. If people aren't up to it, then you can have some abrupt departures.''

"Women also struggle to make the cut at senior levels in this office. They want inconvenient things, such as infants and lives. And the blokes absolutely run this show. They like football, and novellas, and blogs, and popular culture in boxed sets of DVDs they can devour down the back of the Prime Minister's plane."

It's always interesting to read about the inner workings of the Government, and characters like Alistair Jordan and Lachlan Harris make for interesting reading - but this piece didn't tell us much we hadn't already read.

A cynical mind might think these journalists were given access to the PM and his staff to continue cultivating an image of Rudd and his office, in keeping with the image of a government that never sleeps. No wonder he drops some F-Bombs every so often.

Have a read and share your thoughts.

A John Brumby Suprise

You wouldn't believe the lengths Brumby Government Ministers are going to in order to avoid protesters in regional Victoria.

As a big surprise, to everyone except a select few event organisers, Premier John Brumby appeared at a cultural event in Wangaratta last night. No doubt his attendance was confirmed weeks ago but kept secret to ensure the party was not crashed by any of the local action groups popping up around country Victoria in opposition to Brumby policies for water and land taxes.

Brumby would do well to remember that 10 years ago it was in part a swing against the Government from the bush that ousted Jeff Kennett.

It must be good to be the King.

Coming Up Next: Bill Shorten

Look out for Andrew Rule's profile of ALP up-and-comer Bill Shorten in the next couple of weeks. Rule's piece will be in the Good Weekend Magazine.

Rule said this week that he tried hard to to avoid writing yet another piece about how charming the Member for Maribyrnong and Parliamentary Secretary for Disabilities and Children's Services can be.

Too late for the students above. This candid shot shows Shorten and Deputy Prime Minister Julia Gillard googling themselves to see who gets more hits.

Stop Waffling Wayne

Have a listen to Wayne Swan on AM this morning.

This interview, as with so many others given by the Treasurer, leaves you wondering what the point of speaking to the media is when you are not going to answer any questions.

Amazingly, with good news as much as bad, Swan verges on dishonesty in his blatant refusal to give answers that are in any way related to the questions asked by journalists. People think this is message politics, when really it is a poor attempt to drive home key points. It is a very poor strategy from Swan, all too often wasting everyone's time and journalists need to call him on it.

The partial transcript of his "interview" with Lydnal Curtis appears below. Read her questions and then see if you can find any link in his answers, or listen to the whole thing on the AM Website:

LYNDAL CURTIS: How long will it take though for people who have lost their jobs or people who have lost working hours to get those back?

WAYNE SWAN: Well that's one of the reasons why we must keep in place our stimulus. There are calls to withdraw the stimulus now, to pull the rug out from underneath the recovery. What we must do is keep the stimulus in place. It supports employment across the board. It supports confidence in the economy which is particularly important as we move forward.

LYNDAL CURTIS: The (OECD) report though doesn't paint such a good picture of the help Australia offers to the unemployed, saying it spends amongst the least on training the unemployed, has amongst the lowest unemployment benefits and has a higher rate of poor jobless households. Does the Government need to look at doing more?

WAYNE SWAN: Well jobs have been our number one priority from day one; our number one priority in terms of supporting the training and education of our future workforce. That's why we have put in place the education revolution. That's why we have put in place our training places through the productivity places. We have put in place from day one much more support to ensure that those who are looking for work can get the qualifications they require. And in the middle of that we encountered a global recession and we responded in a timely and powerful way with our economic stimulus.

LYNDAL CURTIS: Is the risk though for the people who have lost working hours but not jobs, as the economy picks up, as interest rates come back up from emergency levels and prices start rising, that those people are left with less working hours but bigger bills?

WAYNE SWAN: Well as the economy grows that supports employment. And what will occur as the economy continues to grow is that more people will be employed.

You see what has occurred during this global recession and its impact in this country is that we have had an extraordinary response. We have seen employers and employees come together at the workplace level. The consequence of that has been that unemployment has not risen to the extent that it could have risen but it has also meant that some people are working less hours. That's why it's important to keep our stimulus in place - to support confidence, to support the private sector. And as private sector demand returns more people will be working and more people will work more hours but there is still a very substantial threat because the global economy is weak and unemployment globally is rising so we can't take our foot off the accelerator when it comes to supporting employment.

Swan needs to get real before everyone stops listening.

Rudd Taps Beazley and Nelson for Diplomatic Gigs

New jobs for Kim Beazley and Brendan Nelson today.

Completely unsurprising is the news that former ALP Opposition leader Kim "Bomber" Beazley will become Australian ambassador to Washington while in a move no one was expecting, Rudd has named former Liberal Opposition leader Brendan Nelson to be ambassador to the European Union, Belgium, Luxembourg, and NATO as well as Australia's special representative to the World Health Organisation.

Beazley left Parliament after he lost the leadership to Kevin Rudd and is currently the chancellor of the Australian National University while today marks Nelson's departure from Canberra after 13 years of service, including his unsuccessful 10 month stint as Opposition leader following the 2007 election.

Both options are pretty safe bets from Kevin Rudd and will most likely be met with praise from the media and the electorate.

More to follow.

The Sweetest of Souvenirs

Politico reports that Obama has added his name to another of the trappings of being the President of the United States.

"POTUS finally got his presidential M&Ms. They arrived a few weeks ago, and a couple boxes of them were handed out to pool. The presidential seal with POTUS's signature is on one side of the white box bordered with blue stars, and a yellow peanut M&M in marching pose, holding an American flag is on the other."

What to do When You're Caught With Your Pants Down

Rodney Tiffin on the Ministerial Guide to Surviving a Sex Scandal.

"The media love retelling tawdry personal snippets, but they normally need a public-interest excuse to do so. It is politically lethal to put your lover on the government payroll, use your ministerial expense account to buy gifts or lie publicly about the affair, especially in Parliament. When the Liberal senator Bob Woods took his mistress on a tour of French wineries at the taxpayers' expense, it was a recipe for popular indignation."

John Della Bosca: When Things Fall Apart

As the New South Wales ALP Government continues to crumble, Annabel Crabb thinks they may have trouble achieving an election. Following the resignation of Health Minister John Della Bosca, Nathan Rees' government is even more on the nose.

Today's developments which suggest there is some seriously dodgy stuff happening is worrying.

"Does it matter, in the end, that a 53-year-old politician makes a fool of himself with a lass half his age? Not usually - not to the public, or to anyone outside his family. But this is different.

"This is NSW, within the ranks of whose government all kinds of social codes seem to be undergoing some sort of ritualised breakdown.

"Nothing is off limits here any more, and nothing, it seems, is beyond the imagination.

Crabb is correct, it does matter. Government Ministers should be held to a higher standard, and potential Premiers (even if it was only JDB who thought he would actually topple Rees) need to work even harder

Tom Dusevic wrote in The Financial Review thinks that there are three rules to follow in public life:

1. Tell The Truth

2. Stay on Message and

3. Keep your Trousers On

Woops. Broke all three.

Obama's People

Photographer Nadav Kander met many of the key players in the Obama administration for his latest series of photographs called Obama's People. It's 52 portraits depicting the members of White House staff and Cabinet.

The Guardian has picked out some of the best. Interesting portraits of some important people.

Have a look and suggest your favourite.

The Liberal Circus

Roll Up! Roll Up! The Liberal Party Circus is in town!

The Opposition front bench (pictured above) continues to tear itself apart as Malcolm Turnbull is accused of seeking ALP preselection before becoming a Liberal candidate, the Opposition leader denies this claim, and his staff hosted a poorly received party.

The last week was better than expected for Turnbull, but it was still pretty rubbish. Tony Abbott and Joe Hockey continue to be mentioned as possible replacements for Turnbull if he stumbles before the election but neither wants the job enough to challenge for it.

So the show continues to roll on.

Has Rudd Got What It Takes?

Kevin Rudd is rapidly approaching 2 years as Prime Minister.

His popularity is sky high, the economy appears to be avoiding the worst of the economic crisis, his opposition is weak and his reelection seems almost certain.

However, Ross Gittins, writing in The Age says that Rudd is yet to prove himself as a real leader, to "lose his political virginity, grow up and realise that successful, worthwhile, memorable leadership of the nation inevitably involves being willing to make unpopular decisions - decisions the wisdom of which the electorate comes to accept only in retrospect."

Gittens points out that John Howard took tough decisions which were electorally unpopular, like the GST and and labour market changes, and that Rudd is yet to do so. It is important to remember that Howard very nearly lost the 1998 election, and Rudd has shown himself to be politically cautious.

With so many reports and reviews established, Rudd will have to show some spine eventually. The next budget promises to be tough which is why many expect the election to be before May 2010.

Time to stand up Kevin07.

Trust Me, I'm a Politician.

As one Australian politician said recently: in politics if it isn't reported, it didn't happen.

Luc Chatel, the French education minister might have preferred this one didn't happen at all.

Chatel and Hervé Novelli, the secretary of state for commerce, were caught out staging a supposedly candid photo op in a Paris supermarket last week.

The New York Times reports the story quoting journalists present for the visit who were suspicious when the quiet supermarket aisles "suddenly filled with well-dressed, articulate women eager to praise a government freeze on the price of some school supplies before the new school year began."

The women, including a local politician from the governing center-right party said they just happened to be in the store at the time of the event. They apparently left together in a car after the ministers left, without buying anything and leaving groceries in shopping baskets.

This is a weird example of how dishonest political campaigning and message politics is becoming. Presumably this kind of activity happens much more often than it is discovered but it is good to see the press keeping political leaders in check when they try to pull a fast one on the public.

Annabel Crabb on the Metaphor Factory

Annabel Crabb thinks there is a Rocky Road that leads to the Parliament House Fudge Factory.

Rahm Emanuel: Chief of Pretty Much Everything

The New York Times has yet another profile of Rahm Emanuel but this one might be the best yet. Peter Baker and Jeff Zeleny spoke to more than 60 people about Barack Obama's Chief of Staff, known to be something of a tough customer.

"The caricature of Mr. Emanuel as a profanity-spewing operative has given way to a more nuanced view: as a profanity-spewing operative with a keen understanding of how to employ power on behalf of a new president with relatively little experience in Washington.

"Although relentlessly deferential to the president, Mr. Emanuel is clearly more chief than staff. While some predecessors husbanded their authority, lest it be diluted, friends said he believed the more someone used power, the more power that person had."

The piece argues that it is Emanuel in a big part who is leading the charge on so many big issues at once. Health Care is starting to show some of Obama's oponents gaining ground, and as yet the Administration is yet to get it's mojo back on the issue. As Baker and Zeleny point out, it will be Emanuel's job on the line before Obama's if things fall apart.

Kevin Rudd Gets Graphic

The American news media has done this sort of thing before, but The Punch has a graphic representation of Kevin Rudd's most used words in his speeches.

Put simply: the more times he has said a particular word in 2009, the bigger it is represented.

Pretty exciting stuff as you can see. Note 'today', 'also' and 'one' as some of the big hitters. Can't see "working families" on there.

Michelle Grattan On How Things Stand

Michelle Grattan writes in The Age today about how things stand for Malcolm Turnbull at the end of the week. In short, Grattan thinks things could be a bit worse and a lot better for the Opposition Leader.

"Overall, Turnbull ends this week in better shape than he started, when Monday's Newspoll saw his disapproval up to 57 per cent (from 50 per cent). But he's still in a bad position, and will be expecting the polls to continue to show this.

"He has a very small amount of political capital, and the emissions trading battle has been absorbing a lot of it, so he's risk averse on other things. He should have reshuffled his frontbench in the winter break but held off, presumably to avoid upsetting ''losers''."

Grattan is correct. Turnbull needs to get on the front foot and change his communications strategy from reactive to proactive. All of the power in politics lies with the Government and oppositions rarely have control (except for one Mr K Rudd when he was in opposition).

Turnbull has a lot of work ahead of him, and the election campaign will most likely be before next May's budget, so he needs to get moving. That being said: you have to ask yourself if the electorate is looking for an alternative to Kevin Rudd right now? Is there any room for the Opposition when the Government is still strong and leading the charge?

Suu Kyi and Burma: Essential Background

A really interesting report for your weekend from the PBS Newshour on Aung San Suu Kyi and her return to the home that has been her prison for most of the last 20 years. Following the conclusion of her recent trial, the democracy activist was returned to her home and prison, until at least the sham elections to be held in Burma next year.This week, Suu Kyi was sentenced to three years of hard labor, but the sentence was reduced to 18 months of house arrest.

The discussion deals with the background to Suu Kyi's case, what her life is like and the every day situation for the Burmese people. Watch or listen to the story online now.

Burma is one of the great failings of human rights in the world today. Hopefully the UN General Assembly in September will deal with this terrible regime and work for the release of Suu Kyi and the hundreds of political prisoners in Burmese jails.

Help Wanted

Malcolm Turnbull is on the market for a new media manager. Do you know what "concocted" means? Apply here.

Some back seat driving from Josh Gordon in yesterday's paper.

"Trouble is, ''getting on with it'' is a big ask when there is so much potential for disaster. It's a pyschological problem. Rather than talking about the economy, health, education, tax reform, small business, national security and climate change, MPs are caught in a downward spiral of self-analysis. Fascinating to watch for political aficionados, but ultimately uninspiring for the Australian public."

Turnbull is short on options, and he needs to change the subject as best he can. Tell Wilson Tuckey to shut the hell up and get on message about ETS legislation and any of the many issues before the parliament in this session.

Help for the Homeless

Reports today that Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has established an council on homelessness, with independent powers to advise the government on strategies to halve the problem by 2020.

When he was elected, Rudd highlighted this issue as a key concern for his government, in addition to the larger issue of social inclusion in the Australian community. In 2008, Rudd released a white paper on the issue.

The Age reports that Mr Rudd has appointed Tony Nicholson, from the Brotherhood of St Laurence, to chair the newly established council with representatives from social services, religious groups and Indigenous representatives.

"The council will provide independent strategic advice critical to the early years of implementing the government's white paper on homelessness ...and monitor its progress as we work towards the goal of halving homelessness by 2020," Rudd said.

The problem has been left to the religious and not-for-profit groups for too long, and it is very encouraging to see action from the Rudd Government. The news media should take action to highlight the problem and solutions from state and federal governments.

Julia Gillard: Only Time Will Tell

One can't help wondering if anyone other than conservative journalists are talking up Julia Gillard toppling Kevin Rudd?

Janet Albrechtsen is at it again this weekend in her opinion piece in The Weekend Australian, writing that "This is a purely political observation that other women in my circle also have noted with interest. Could it be that the more Gillard pays attention to the way she looks, applying a little more blush to her cheeks and a splash of colour to her lips, the more Kevin Rudd can be certain that his deputy is aiming her ambition one step higher sooner than he may have imagined?"

In politics, just about everyone is aiming their ambition one step higher, and as deputy prime minister Gillard must be looking past Rudd at some point but it has to be three years away at least. Gillard might have learnt from Peter Costello, that you can't change your image over night. These things take time, and careful cultivation.

As Kevin Rudd would say: all in due season.

The Political Week Ahead In Canberra

Two suggestions for weekend reading:

Michelle Grattan and Lenore Taylor both preview the week ahead in Canberra. The Liberal party is like an unmade bed, and the Government is going for the kill.

Grattan writes:
"The coming week will be extraordinarily difficult for Turnbull. Parliament resumes on Tuesday, against the background of a new Newspoll, and the party room meets on the same day. In the Senate the Government will move for the Senate committee hearing of June 19 - at which Abetz questioned Grech after the witness had coached the Opposition - to be considered by the privileges committee. And, apart from all this, there is the set piece of the week: the Senate debate and vote on the emissions trading legislation, where the Opposition has to try not to appear totally obstructionist when it votes no."

and Taylor argues:
"The bad news for the Liberal Party is that it has not yet reached rock bottom. In fact, next week could be even worse for the conservatives. Malcolm Turnbull's fear is that this means he won't get time to change the subject, that his party will be panicked into a leadership change first."

Newspoll results, Parliament sitting, a Liberal party room meeting, ETS debate continuing, the remaking of Julia Gillard and plenty of finger pointing. Should make for an interesting week.

Read Michelle Grattan's piece here and Lenore Taylor's column here.

Sonia Sotomayor Confirmed

The United States Senate has today confirmed Sonia Sotomayor as the 111th justice and first Hispanic on the Supreme Court. Sotomayor is only the third woman to become a Supreme Court justice.

President Barack Obama’s first Supreme Court nominee attracted nine GOP votes in addition to all the Democrats, so was confirmed easily on a 68-31 vote. She replaces Justice David Souter who is retiring. It is expected Sotomayor will not upset the ideological balance of the highest court in the land.

Sotomayor's confirmation will be remembered as smooth sailing, with few controversial rulings in her career to upset either side of the political divide. The Supreme Court will next sit in early October.

The Good, The Bad and The Ugly

Former Prime Minister John Howard delivered one of his first major lectures since losing office at the University of Melbourne, on the topic of 'Politics and the Media: The Good, The Bad and The Ugly.'

Howard was interesting, engaging and gave a good overview of his views on the media, including praise and criticism of journalists and media outlets, but he didn't particularly challenge or excite his audience in the address. Howard's lecture was quickly booked out, although there were some empty seats in the large lecture theatre.

Howard said that there were excellent journalists in Australia, who lived up to their responsibility as protectors of liberty and truth, but was critical of the media's handling of a number of issues in his more than 30 years in Australian politics.

Sighting various case studies, Howard said the media's pursuit of former Governor-General, Dr Peter Hollingworth was nothing short of a "character assassination" of a good man. He suggested the intense criticism of Hollingworth's handling of child abuse allegations, which brought about his resignation in 2003, was disgraceful.

"You can criticise his judgment. You can criticise the prime minister who was responsible for the recommendation but I thought the relentless pursuit and character assassination of a very, very decent man - I thought that was appalling, and it went largely right across the media."

Howard said the media's misunderstanding of Pauline Hanson "did a disservice to our long-term national interest." As someone who skillfully benefited from Hansonism, he pointed out that the media didn't understand who the Queenslander represented.

"But I think there was a lot more to what was occurring then and I think many in the media failed to understand that she was articulating a sense of dispossession and a sense of being left behind felt by a section of the Australian community, and a sense that the values of this country were being changed without the country being consulted."

In answering questions from the audience, Mr Howard seemed unaware of criticism of Prime Minister Kevin Rudd's press minders preventing reporters from travelling to press conferences in rural Australia. It could also be argued this was Howard's attempt to avoid criticism of Rudd's media strategy.

Unsurprisingly, he credited the media for understanding some of his major political achievements including coverage of child abuse in Northern Territory indigenous communities, 1990s tax reform and industrial relations.

Howard seemed in good form, rejecting the example of other recent former PMs, and seemed keen to keep answering questions. One shouldn't have expected too many fireworks from Howard, but he did seem to stick to safe ground.

Life must be pretty good for the former PM - free of daily criticism, the 24-hour media cycle and enjoying three weeks of the Ashes in England (including as a correspondent for The Spectator), and he should continue to contribute to the Australian political dialogue. His memoirs will be interesting reading, sure to be a full account of his life in politics.

What did you think of the lecture? Leave a comment. If you didn't make it, you can watch or listen to it via recording here:

http://live.unimelb.edu.au/episode/politics-and-media-good-bad-and-ugly

A Forgotten Dream?

Racism, reverse racism and having a few beers with President Obama. Has race in the age of Obama forgotten what went before?

http://www.newyorker.com/talk/comment/2009/08/10/090810taco_talk_sanneh

Return to Sender

Today will be a key date in Malcolm Turnbull's political career. The public servant at the heart of the so called "Ute-gate" scandal has given his first interview since his claims about an email from the office of the Prime Minister Kevin Rudd regarding Queensland used car dealer John Grant's access to government assistance.

Godwin Grech has spoken to The Australian newspaper about the series of meetings and events that have caused much damage to Malcolm Turnbull and the Opposition.

Grech has admitted to doctoring the email, although he claims he thought a real email existed.

Denis Shanahan writes: "The real problem for Turnbull is no longer a failure of political judgment over the use of what turned out to be a fake email to call for Rudd's resignation. Rather it is that Grech claims the Liberal leader had intimate involvement and direction in the handling of "confidential" Treasury information and the coaching of a senior Treasury official in the leaking of the material. Turnbull became deeply and personally involved in the release of what he believed to be an email that could bring down the Prime Minister."

There is much more to come today, but start by reading Shanahan and coverage from The Australian. More stories as they are published.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25877628-24636,00.html

A Pretty Important To-Do List

What kind of boss is Barack Obama?

"In a room just off the Oval Office, Brian Mosteller carefully pens a to-do list on a little white notecard. In the coming hours, he will monitor all the comings and goings in the West Wing, as well as all the practical details of those events. And so his list mixes the monumental and the mundane."

A good little piece about a day in the life of one of the key administrative aides to President Obama.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0709/25543.html

Turnbull's Australian Story

'Paths of Glory', the Australian Story episode on Malcolm Turnbull adds to recent biographies of the Leader of the Opposition. It has some revealing interviews with his wife, talks about his parents and shows some inside footage during the Budget reply and 'Ute-gate' scandal.

Watch it here:
http://www.abc.net.au/austory/specials/pathsofglory/default.htm

A Taste of Things to Come

It is reported today that Mr Howard has delivered the first chapters of his memoirs to publisher HarperCollins, ahead of it's expected release at the end of next year.

It is thought the published paid as much as $400,000 advance for the book, which regardless of your view of Howard has to be one of the most interesting Australian political memoirs of recent times.

Reports say the book is not a political "kiss-and-tell" which isn't surprising from someone like Howard. The book is expected to be one part biography, and one part political memoir to cover his entire 30 years in politics.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25877363-5013404,00.html

Thirsty Work

Here is a little damage control from Barack Obama - having a beer with VP Biden and key players in the "Gates-gate" scandal.

President Barack Obama’s beer with Harvard Professor Henry Louis Gates Jr. and Cambridge police Sgt. Jim Crowley happened on the White House lawn on Thursday.

A lot of people would love to have a beer with Obama - but this one is like a bad PR dream that turns out to be true.

Politico has good coverage of the day's events in Washington:
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0709/25637.html

When Things Don't Go to Plan

Minister for Employment Participation and Kevin Rudd go-to-man committed one of the biggest sins in national politics - he was bad on live TV.

"Is it a job or is it a work experience program?", and replied: "A work experience program is a job. They'll be actually working during this time."

Rudd's plan is for 50,000 new green jobs and training places cleaning up national parks, water saving projects and housing insulation jobs to turn the rising tide of youth unemployment and the assist school leavers and young people to find ongoing jobs.

If Rudd had his way, there would be little news on anything of substance coming from the ALP conference at Darling Harbour. Seems like his new Minister didn't get the memo on that one.

Going into Battle

Greg Sheridan has one of the first responses to Tony Abbott's new book, Battlelines.

"It's a good book and a rare event on the Liberal side of politics. A smattering of Liberals write personal memoirs after they leave or are on their way out. These are seldom worth reading and have no impact."

More than his thoughts on Abbott's new book, Sheridan discusses Abbott's potential to lead the Liberals should Malcolm Turnbull lose the next election. Sheridan suggests that Abbott is the only "usable" candidate after Turnbull - casting doubt on the conventional wisdom that Joe Hockey is next in line.

"Now is a critical time for the generation of Liberals in their 50s. If they walk away from leadership their party will have no usable leader for a long time. Costello's decision is selfish and speaks to his character. None of the Liberals in their 40s, certainly not Joe Hockey or any of the others, is remotely usable by the electorate. If Turnbull should lose heavily in the election, and decide to leave, Abbott is the only remotely credible Liberal."

While Abbott is clearly a politician with conviction and drive, he has an image problem in the electorate and importantly in the media, a problem not dissimilar to that of his party in the mind of the average voter. Abbott is seen as a crazy conservative who had a terrible campaign including the debacle that was the health debate where Abbott was late and was caught swearing at Nicola Roxon. His performance in the House during the ute-gate debates did a lot to remind Liberals why John Howard is a big fan of Abbott.

If Abbott can use the time between now and the election to be seen as a team player who supports his leader, continue the process of regaining control of his image and contribute in a serious way to the policy development process the Liberals need then he will surely be a key decision maker and even a contender for the leadership if Turnbull falls.

Say whatever you like about Abbott but he is one of the Liberals heavy hitters - and Turnbull will have little choice but to promote Abbott to a more senior shadow-ministry in his reshuffle which is expected in the next few weeks.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25854311-24636,00.html

A Silver Lining?

Interesting figures from the US on the rise in public volunteering. In the last 12 months, more Americans volunteered than in the previous year. This is a big rise and is in line with trends around the world - including Australia where there is a smaller rise in volunteering in the community.

From The Washington Post: "Almost a million more people donated their time to civic causes in 2008 than in 2007 even though volunteer rates typically drop during economic downturns, according to the survey by the Corporation, an independent federal agency which runs AmeriCorps and other programs. In all, 61.8 million people volunteered last year."

But here is the amazing part: The age bracket with the biggest increase in volunteers is young adults; the number of 16- to 24-year-old volunteers increased by 6 percent, from 7.8 million to 8.2 million. The US Government volunteer program AmeriCorps, which engages people to work full-time in the community, saw applications increase 217 percent over the past eight months.

There is a lot of research that suggests that businesses who develop and grow during recessions do much better than others who bunker down to ride out the storm. Now is the time for Australians to get into volunteering and invest in community. The Rudd Government has a rare opportunity to build up this important sector and increase the number of Australians who volunteer.

Read the whole story here:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/07/28/AR2009072800540.html?hpid=topnews

Nicola Roxon on 'Q and A'

Health Minister Nicola Roxon answered questions on Q and A about the plans for health reform. Here is a small selection from the transcript:

NICOLA ROXON: Well, everyone has gone straight to the heart of the sort of difficult issues that I need to deal with and I think it is patently obvious to everybody that there are some problems in our health system, and I'm not here to pretend that everything is perfect. I think what we have, though, in that range of questions, is a mix of quite a few different things. I can tell you for sure that a Labor Government is not about to get rid of Medicare and move to where America is, as our second questioner indicated. In fact, when you look at the debate that Obama is going through, when you compare where our starting point is here, we've got the basics of a very good system.

The first question on when are we going to take it over or why can't we take it over, I don't actually think the question is whether we can or not, although the constitutional lawyers in the audience would have a lot of fun debating that. The question I'm asking, and we are going to be involved in this debate very closely and carefully, is: would changing the government governance actually deliver a better outcome for patients?

Ultimately there's a lot of reforms that are being talked about and we can get obsessed with which level of government does it or how much money should go in or what we should prioritise. Ultimately, I think we have to measure all of those questions against what will deliver a better outcome and I am worried that a lot of health professionals do feel that despondent about working in public hospitals when, in fact, we have a very good public hospital system. So we have to make sure we get rid of those frustrations, because we need our best and brightest in those hospitals.

TONY JONES: Can I just interrupt you? Can I interrupt you there because I'd like to bring you to the election promise...

NICOLA ROXON: Sure.

TONY JONES: ...which was that you should know the answer to this question by now?

NICOLA ROXON: No, well, the...

TONY JONES: Because you were...

NICOLA ROXON: Yeah.

TONY JONES: You were meant to have an investigation of this which finished halfway through 2009.

NICOLA ROXON: Yeah. Well, let...

TONY JONES: At which point you were going to decide whether or not the Federal Government would take over State and Territory hospitals. So why don't you know the answer now.

NICOLA ROXON: But let's be clear. The commitment was that we would assess whether the Commonwealth should take over financial controls of the hospitals by the middle of this year. We didn't promise that we would take them over. We didn't promise that we would announce it on a particular day. I actually think on - what's the date in the July at the moment? The 23rd. We're probably still in the middle of this year. We are very shortly to release a very detailed report from our health and hospitals reform commission and I don't think any person in this audience, no matter how frustrated, presumably wants us to rush into a decision like this. That report needs to be released. We have to have debate on it. We haven't been sitting still while that report has been being written. We've been investing massive amounts of new money in hospitals, in workforce training, in prevention, in a whole lot of areas that I'd love to go through but would probably bore all of your audience. But so the point...

TONY JONES: Okay, but very briefly, on the subject of...

NICOLA ROXON: The point is...

TONY JONES: But does that report - is that report telling you the Federal Government should take over state and territory hospitals?

NICOLA ROXON: Well, I know you would love to have an exclusive tonight...

NICK MINCHIN: Yeah, release the report, you know.

NICOLA ROXON: ..."Here's the report I bought with me."

TONY JONES: Just give us a hint.

NICOLA ROXON: But the hint that I can give you, Tony, is very shortly it will be released and I think there's going to be a huge amount of public debate. As we saw from the interim report, there are a lot of quite radical, quite interesting, quite innovative things talked about in that and I think our health system needs that. To be honest, we cannot afford to make some slapdash decisions, bits and piece decisions, when actually our system has been in trouble for some time. In 18 months I think we've started to turn that around, but when you've got your audience saying this has been for decades, I don't think it's realistic to expect that we can fix in 18 months.

NICOLA ROXON: We certainly could and I think that is part of the debate. Interestingly, when we try and re-jig things at all, like change the private health insurance rebate incentives so the people that earn more money contribute more to our health system, the Liberal Party blocks it every time we try to do anything like that. So the re-balancing isn't always easily done and I have a personal view that we actually need a good public and private system. I don't want the public system to be some poor cousin safety net, but I do actually think the system has benefitted in Australia from having a bit of competition between the two, and I think we could probably use that better and we could fund it differently. These are incredibly complex questions, which I don't think - no disrespect Tony, but this show cannot do justice to the vast range of issues we need to go through with training our workforce properly, making sure people have access, modernising Medicare and it has always been Labor that's taken these big, bold steps, but we usually do them carefully, make sure they're argued out properly and we want the public engaged. We committed...

TONY JONES: But we can hold you...

NICOLA ROXON: We committed we would take it to the public.

TONY JONES: But we can hold you to your promises and one of them was we should know the answer to this by the middle of this year.

NICOLA ROXON: No, one of them was we will consider it...

TONY JONES: On that subject....

NICOLA ROXON: ...in the middle of this year, which we are doing.

Who Gives a Buck?

Annabel Crabb on what we are all thinking today:

http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/a-buck-that-has-a-lot-of-ground-to-cover-20090727-dyu8.html?page=-1

I can so, like, totally vote now!

The Federal Government has today launched discussion of lowering the voting age to 16. Special Minister of State Joe Ludwig has raised the issue ahead of its second electoral green paper to be released later this year.

It is now more than 35 years since the voting age in Australia was lowered from 21 to the present age of 18, the same age young people get their license and can legally drink.

While there are some good arguments for the plan - namely increasing the political engagement of young people - essentially it would be giving the rights of adults to young people who are still learning the rights and responsibilities that comes with being a member of the community.

It could be argued that reform to the voting system could include better education for young Australians about our parliamentary democracy and the importance of voting and participation in politics. Currently as many as one third of 18 year-old Australians don't even register to vote - and we have compulsory voting in this country.

The political ramifications of such a change would be good for Kevin Rudd's Labor and the Greens but not so good for the conservatives. Malcolm Turnbull has already suggested most 16 year-olds have other priorities.

What do you think?

Penny Wrong

Penny Wong, Minister for Climate Change and Water, shouldn't spend time commenting on the political ins and outs of the Liberal party. She should remind herself the ALP is in government and not opposition.

She has the most politically charged portfolio after the Treasurer but spends all her media availability commenting on the Liberal Party. She suggested that the proposed Turnbull amendments to the ETS legislation were like "something you would find at a Young Liberals conference". Unfortunately these kinds of comments are the only interesting media comments she makes.

She sounds petty when she comments on the Liberal party room, and she can't suggest Malcolm Turnbull is obstructionist and ignore his suggestions completely out of hand in the same breath.

The Emperor's New Clothes

Steven Erlanger in The New York Times has documented the change in French President Nicolas Sarkozy, suggesting he is in the process of some image transformation ahead of seeking reelection in 2012.

"He was flashy, known as President Bling Bling. He was widely regarded as “plouc” — a term embracing both provincial ignorance and flashy new wealth, describing someone who does not understand the social codes.

"Mrs. Sarkozy has already changed his clothing, putting him in dark suits, English shirts from Hilditch & Key and lugubrious dark ties. She bought him a thin gold Patek Philippe to replace his large shiny watch. She took him to her physical trainer. She has tried to keep him quieter, more distant and presidential. And the French like their presidents to have a tinge of high culture."

An American or Australian leader is rarely discussed in this way - but Sarko is hardly a normal political leader at any rate. His approval ratings have fallen fast in the last 12 months but it is a long time until 2012, and his relationship with Obama will strengthen his hand.

Read the story here:

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/26/world/europe/26sarkozy.html?_r=2&src=twt&twt=nytimes

The Gentleman from Minnesota

Al Franken is now the junior Senator from Minnesota, after more than 8 months of legal wrangling with former Sentor Norm Coleman.

The New Yorker has profiled him and the piece gives some explanation of how the former Saturday Night Live comedian convinced anyone to vote for him and how he plans to tackle his new role.

"Like Hillary Clinton in 2001, Franken enters the Senate as someone both blessed and burdened with the kind of celebrity that can summon a press scrum at a moment’s notice but can also create resentment among colleagues; also like Clinton, he has been reviled by Republicans. The day the Minnesota Supreme Court declared him the winner, Senator Jim Inhofe, Republican of Oklahoma, called him “the clown from Minnesota.” Senator John Cornyn, Republican of Texas, had previously declared that any effort to seat Franken prematurely would result in “World War III,” and he had suggested that a federal challenge could keep Coleman fighting in the courts for “years.”

Read the full profile here:

www.newyorker.com/reporting/2009/07/20/090720fa_fact_colapinto

Thinking Ahead to 2010

Kevin Rudd is always looking ahead, and Michelle Grattan thinks he has the 2010 election in mind. Grattan previews the economy and its role in the months to come.

"Kevin Rudd sometimes looks like a frustrated academic. Having made a splash early this year with his 8000-word essay lambasting neo-liberalism at the height of the financial crisis, he has now produced some 6000 words on the prospective recovery, published in yesterday's Age.He's a bit less turgid and provocative this time, though the "neo-liberals" get another serve. But the message is also quite grim for Australian families: even when things start getting better, life will be worse for many people."

While the essays have to be a fairly ineffective way of expressing policies, Rudd is clearly gearing up for the election. Climate change and the ETS will be big issues, but its all about the economy. Managing expectations and keeping the Liberals shut out of what is usually their number one strength will make things easier for Rudd to win a second term.

The economic down turn was nowhere to be seen in 2007, but in 2010 Rudd will defend his handling of the situation and position himself as the best person to lead Australia out of the recession, be it technically here or not.

One wonders how Turnbull will fight that if the economic indicators continue to be better than expected.

Read Grattan's piece here:
www.theage.com.au/opinion/rudd-blends-politics-and-economics-with-eye-on-election-20090725-dwui.html?page=-1

6 Steps to Success for Obama

Matt Mackowiak from Politico has suggested 6 steps Obama must take to reclaim the DC momentum on the issue of health care reform, and approval ratings above 50 per cent.

Mackowiak says Obama needs to get back in the drivers seat on the health care quickly as he prepares to send the legislation to congress and take some time off during the American summer. He outlines a number of questions that need hard and fast answers:

"Obama has repeatedly said that anyone who wants to keep his or her current health insurance plan will be able to. This appears false, because if an employer elects to end the private insurance plan offered to employees to opt for the government plan, then employees cannot keep their current plans as Obama has promised. This is either true or false, and Obama must answer this question directly."

As there are signs the economy is getting back on track slowly, health care seems like it will be the big issue for Obama over the next few months. There is disquiet in Congress about the speed and detail of the plan, and Senate Leader Harry Reid disagrees with Obama's timetable for reform so it will be heating up in the next few weeks.

The photo above is from Time Magazine and was taken at a recent Town Hall meeting on the issue.

www.politico.com/news/stories/0709/25227.html

All Politics Is Local

Each week The Guardian Politics blog features six political articles worth reading. At the risk of losing readership, see for yourself what they recommend from the British political media.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/blog/

Is Malcolm About to Get Maxine'd ?

Glenn Milne reports today that the ALP will attempt to unseat Malcolm Turnbull at the next election, in a return to Maxine McKew style tactics used successfully against former prime minister John Howard in 2007.

The ALP plans to run a high profile candidate in Wentworth to force Turnbull to campaign more in his local area and less on a national scale. The tactic worked perfectly in Howard's old seat but might not be so successful in Sydney's bluest of blue ribbon seats.

One wonders who the ALP will pick to run against Turnbull? Maxine McKew already has a job.

Good Press for Therese

A good weekend of press for Therese Rein, wife of Kevin Rudd. Rein gave her first two major interviews to The Weekend Australian and Fairfax papers - both claimed to have the first exclusive interview.

In case you missed the interviews, links are below as well as a photo slide show with commentary by Annabel Crabb on her interview with the PM's wife.

Rein has not given interviews until now, and while is not a political player as such, she does speak about the Prime Minister and life in the Lodge. The interviews were clearly conducted under the usual Rudd media MO, minders overseeing all and tough questions dodged but Rein comes across as smart, successful and driven. Hardly relevant to this blog but hard not to mention: she looks fantastic after dropping 25 killos in preparation for climbing Mt Kilimanjaro.

Leave your comments please.

www.smh.com.au/national/the-lady-of-the-lodge-demystifying-the-pms-wife-20090717-do8j.html

www.smh.com.au/multimedia/national/when-annabel-crabb-met-therese-rein/20090720-dq2q.html

I Am Not A Crook

Turns out he was. And the Watergate Hotel is for sale.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/07/18/AR2009071802087.html?hpid%3Dtopnews&sub=AR

140 Characters or Less

Caroline Overington, of The Australian writes on her Twitter feed:

"White House press corp all aflutter over fact that White House has announced an Obama press conference not directly to them but on Twitter."

A sign of the times?

Spring Cleaning

Rick Wallace has pointed out the difficult choices facing The Victorian ALP over what to do with MP Theo Theophanous if his committal hearing for rape charges ends without the case going to trial. Theophanous has lodged a nomination for his preselection, refusing the leave parliament at the next election.

"However, the ALP hierarchy and some factional leaders have already appeared to cut him adrift to allocate his spot on the upper house ticket to someone else. His task, if the judge finds he has no case to answer, will be to convince the ALP's national executive, which is conducting all Victorian upper house preselections, that he has more to offer in the political world."

If Theophanous avoids trial it will be interesting to see what resolution comes about. If he is found to have done nothing wrong he clearly has the right to contest the election but it could be a symptom of a bigger problem for a government which needs new blood after a long period in office.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25790163-5013948,00.html

The Week Ahead

Politico.com is reporting that Obama has a busy week ahead, tackling some of the biggest issues facing his administration as it gets to the 6 month mark.

"Obama's just-released schedule for next week is packed, starting with a meeting with the crew of Apollo 11 and newly-confirmed NASA Administrator Bolden on Monday, a Tuesday evening event at the White House... a meeting with the Iraqi Prime Minister on Wednesday, a health care speech and DNC fundraiser in Cleveland on Thursday, and a meeting with the NATO Secretary General on Friday."

Obama will also have another prime-time press conference on Wednesday night in which he is expected to discuss developing plans for health care legislation and the confirmation hearings of Supreme Court nominee Sonia Sotomayor.

The busy week will be followed by some exciting summer holiday plans for the Obama family:

www.politico.com/politico44/perm/0709/vacation_on_the_horizon_71352c61-5be0-44f3-a34f-c2c125f16adb.html

Is it possible that this is Obama's favourite tie? He wears it a lot.

Oils Aint Oils

Peter van Onselen writes in defence of Minister for the Environment Peter Garrett in today's Weekend Australian. In perhaps a surprising op-ed the conservative academic, author and commentator defends Garrett's change of positions on nuclear energy in Australia.

He gives a good perspective on political maneuvering in Australia:

"Politics is the art of compromise. Democrats senators learned that lesson, ultimately to considerable public condemnation over their willingness to deal with John Howard on passing the GST. The Australian Greens are starting to learn the lesson, too. Or are they? If they want to be relevant in the Senate they must compromise. The alternative is to stand on principle as deals to pass legislation are done all around them. Those deals may not include measures the excluded parties consider important.

"The burning question is, when does compromise become selling out? When is it more appropriate to walk away from a deal rather than reluctantly agreeing to one? Howard mastered the art of compromising without losing faith in his core values. For all the criticism Howard has endured through the years, no one could accuse him of lacking convictions. But he became more pragmatic the longer he was in politics. He regularly observed that it was more important to get 80per cent of something than zero per cent of nothing."

Politicians, and especially Ministers, should not be single issue operators. If Garrett has matured into a serious ALP player, he should be able to extend his influence to other areas and be prepared to move portfolios in any future reshuffle if it is politically convenient for the Prime Minister.

Garrett's position was weakened from the get go: an environment minister without responsibility for water and climate change is like a health minister without responsibility for doctors and nurses. But if van Onselen is correct, perhaps Kevin Rudd has put Garrett in exactly the right spot.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25796947-7583,00.html

Cool Britainia

If you are interested in British politics, have a listen to the BBC World Service's weekly political program Politics UK. Listen live online, or via Podcast. Australian readers can tune into ABC Newsradio on a Saturday afternoon.

This week's program had a very interesting discussion about the tug of war relationship between political leaders and the British Armed Forces over the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan as well as an in dept discussion about the Pope's response to the global financial crisis in his most recent encyclical.

Like the majority of the British media, Politics UK has decided that Labor has run its race and that Brown will be replaced at the next election by Conservative David Cameron, but the program delivers an even-handed analysis of the week in Westminster.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/worldservice/programmes/2009/03/000000_politics_uk.shtml

Beware The Ides of March

Should Malcolm Turnbull beware the ides of March, 2010?

The Good, The Bad and The Ugly

Former Prime Minister John Howard continues his process of reengagement with Australian public life in a lecture at the University of Melbourne entitled "Politics and the Media: The Good, The Bad and The Ugly".

The event will be held at 7pm on August 4, 2009 at the University's Parkville campus.

Make a booking at the link below:
http://www.unimelb.edu.au/public_lectures/bookings.html

Times They Are A Changing

Still no election until near year but David Cameron fever has spread to the US where The New York Times has profiled him in a long piece that asks the question "Can David Cameron Redefine Britain's Tory Party?".

The problem, and possibly the solution is best demonstrated in this paragraph:
"Conservatives — or Tories, as they are also called — are counting on Cameron to rescue them from the ideological confusion and public contempt that has been their lot since New Labour, behind Tony Blair, drove them from power in 1997, handing the party its worst drubbing since its founding in the 1830s. Tories have spent 12 years mulling over, and fighting over, a version of the problem that now confronts American Republicans. Cameron’s rise has led some conservative thinkers in the United States, notably the Times Op-Ed columnist David Brooks, to suggest that Republicans follow his lead. Speaking to Charlie Rose in April, Brooks described Cameronism as the “natural alternative” to the “technocratic” politics of Barack Obama and summed up Cameron’s philosophy this way: “You’re going to champion the technocrats in government; I’m going to champion every other institution in society, whether it’s family, career associations, the church — every other association you can think of.” A pragmatic kind of communitarianism runs through a lot of Cameron’s policies. His advisers, particularly the party’s shadow education secretary, Michael Gove, argue in defense of local institutions, from schools with competitive enrollments to small post offices, whose contributions to community cohesion don’t appear on the bottom line and are often invisible to orthodox Thatcherites."

The stories about Cameron in the last few months have been along these same lines: how does a party which has been in the wilderness for so long regroup and rebuild around a fresh faced leader? Cameron doesn't have to look too far for some inspiration from the other ideological peak in Obama, Blair and even Kevin Rudd. On a day when Tony Abbott is calling for a "coming out for conservatism", could next year prove that it the Cameron experience will be a successful rebirth for the party of Margaret Thatcher?

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/12/magazine/12cameron-t.html?_r=1

Who Is Sonia Sotomayor?

One of the big stories from the US in the next few weeks will be the confirmation hearings of Sonia Sotomayor, Barack Obama's pick for the US Supreme Court.

If you haven't read much about her yet, try this profile from The New York Times which gives an overview to the woman, her life and her resume.

It would seem that the GOP will put up some opposition to Sotomayor's confirmation, but given the Democratic majority in the Senate and the politics of the growing Latino vote in the United States, Sotomayor will be confirmed before the end of the American summer.

Expect a lot more discussion about her and what impact she will make on the balance of the Court.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/10/nyregion/10sonia.html?_r=1&hp

How Kevin Spun Himself Silly

Michelle Grattan, usually pretty much in line with whatever Kevin Rudd is up to, writes today that Rudd's spin has spun out of control on his visit to see Pope Benedict XVI.

In advance of the visit Rudd said he would lobby the Holy Father on behalf of Mary MacKillop's cause for sainthood. This was at best a silly thing for Rudd to suggest, given that it is not a political issue or even one of national affairs, but rather a centuries old process overseen by the Holy Father.

"Many Australians will feel it fair enough for the PM to be putting in a word for a local heroine (just in case sainthood might be the tiniest bit poll driven).

“After all, politicians go around advocating all sorts of causes; before he got to Rome, Rudd this week was in Zurich running a line with soccer chiefs to try to get the World Cup."

For the record, sainthood is not even the tiniest bit poll driven and Rudd is of course more than entitled to speak about it in an audience with the Holy Father - but to act like it is just another “cause” like the World Cup bid is a pretty callus attempt by Rudd to be seen as a player in affairs outside his reach as Prime Minister.

Stunts have rarely worked for this Government – there is a long list of evidence to support this – so it’s time to be more careful.

Read Grattan here:
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/pm-seeks-political-gain-from-higher-power-20090709-delo.html

Frequent Flyer

A fairly standard puff-piece on "Mr World" Kevin Rudd in the current Time issue.

The piece looks closely at Australia's relationship with China, and in less detail Rudd's views on US/Australian relations.

Rudd is quoted as saying: "You can sit around quietly on the global diplomatic circuit and get nowhere, or you can ball up a few ideas, some of which have some prospects."

As he heads into another overseas week, Rudd is continuing his diplomatic approach to the job of Prime Minister. The trip will include lobbying for Australia's World Cup bid, sainthood for Mary Mackillop and time at with fellow Leaders in Italy.

http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1908274-1,00.html

Where's the Fire?

Hendrik Hertzberg writing in The New Yorker has joined a growing chorus of commentators critical of Obama's pace on dealing with the issues of gay rights in America - something he talked a lot about while campaigning.

"The President has said all the right things. But there have been signs, before the election and after, that where gays are concerned his fine-tuned ear for the emotional resonance of his actions has an alloy of tin. Choosing the conservative evangelical pastor Rick Warren to give the Inaugural invocation could be defended as a mutual gesture of civic comity. More disturbing, if less widely publicized, was the Obama campaign’s use of an anti-gay gospel singer who claimed to have been “delivered” from homosexuality to entertain rallies aimed at Southern blacks. And, in the five months of the Obama Presidency, the hyperactivity that has marked the Administration’s approach to the economic crisis, the health-care mess, and the Middle East has been missing on the issue of what, during the campaign, the candidate stirringly called “real equality for all Americans, gay and straight alike."

American politics has the tendency to over-analyse just about everything, as the paragraph above demonstrates, but it is true Obama is yet to act on his rhetoric on gay rights. It should be noted that in his five months in the Oval Office, Obama has had more than a bit on his plate - leading to what Hertzberg calls "hyperactivity." Surely any reasonable person would expect serious discernment and consultation on an issue as important as correcting laws of discrimination and policies which are clearly inadequate in principle and practicality.

Obama should act and fix the problematic policies of 'Don't Ask, Don't Tell' as well as various acts preventing gay marriage because they are not sustainable or in keeping with community sentiments but this should be done in due course and with the full consideration of time. The issue was dealt with in too much of a hurry by the Clinton administration and the result was a very unsuccessful solution.

http://www.newyorker.com/talk/comment/2009/07/06/090706taco_talk_hertzberg

Bill Clinton on How to Win Friends and Influence People

Bill Clinton is often considered the great people politician of our time, a man obsessed with making a connection with everyone he met, shaking every hand and kissing every baby. There was a brilliant Clinton anecdote on the BBC yesterday which recalled him at a meeting of high powered and influential people.

To the first person at the table he said 'thank you for your amazing book. It will help end poverty.' To the next he said 'your work on that piece of legislation was inspiring and will be remembered by history.' And to the third he said 'thanks for being here today. Nice tie.'

Palin Concedes Defeat and Bows Out

Sarah Palin, Governor of Alaska and former Republican VP candidate, has announced she will resign within the month. In a rambling and pretty pathetic speech to announce her decision, Palin reminded us why John McCain was mistaken in picking Palin for the second spot on his presidential ticket.

As one commentator said, politics is a tough game in the United States, and Sarah Palin has had a very tough 12 months. Her key role in a losing campaign, a media keen on portraying her as something of a sideshow and the pressures of continual corruption investigation.

Palin's speech talked a lot about the honour of service to the people of Alaska but didn't mention that she is clearly shirking her responsibility to serve the term she was elected to. A lot of people forget that this is her first term as Governor, and her record is mixed at best in terms of legislative achievements.

Palin will now continue to give interviews to running magazines, speak at GOP women's functions and be portrayed as the colourful character she is but the big question is will she put her name in the ring for the 2012 Republican nomination.

She should not, the GOP must not and the voters will not.

Stumps for Malcolm Turnbull?

http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/meganomics/index.php/theaustralian/comments/turnbull_may_be_beyond_repair/

You Think You're Funny, Punk?

Depending on your view, Laurie Oakes writes either about the politics of comedy or the comedy of politics.

"Rudd went on Rove in the last election campaign - in preference to the ABC's Insiders - only to be asked who he'd turn gay for and what his ear wax tasted like.

"When Barrie Cassidy complained that the would-be PM was avoiding serious questions, Julia Gillard told the Insiders host to stop behaving "like a jilted lover".

"But Cassidy had a point. Comedy show appearances not only allow politicians to show their lighter side and demonstrate their hipness to a big audience.

"But as Jay Leno admits: "We throw softballs."

"Rove and his kind in Australia throw softballs too."

politics.tom was critical of Rudd for appearing on Rove again rather than more serious political interviews. This criticism is problematic, as Rudd won't be seen by many voters, particularly younger voters, on Insiders or Lateline. That being said, there is something frustrating about seeing Rudd pretend to care about Rove or a comedian pretending to be a gay fashion designer there are serious questions and issues to be debated and resolved.

Oakes is correct that mostly political leaders should stick to more serious interviews, or television like Sunrise which allows them to show their personalities and discuss their positions, without serious need for jokes.

www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,25729694-5000117,00.html

How Are You Feeling?

Keep your eye open for more discussion about a federal takeover of public hospitals in the next few months. This is one of those issues that is always talked about in political campaigns, and rarely acted on in any way but the Rudd Government have committed to taking action.

Rudd and Health Minister Nicola Roxon are now in possession of a report into the health system, and have committed to continuing to discuss the issue with the community. It would be a huge task for the Government and opinion is mixed on the potential outcomes. Rudd is considering the recommendations of the National Health and Hospitals Reform Commission.

Already New South Wales, Western Australia, South Australia and Victoria have said they will not participate in any federal takeover. Press reports today suggest the Government is not planning to release the report, thought to have more than 100 recommendations, for some weeks.

Yesterday the Opposition went on the attack, as two years when Rudd was Opposition Leader he nominated June 30, 2009 as the date when the Government would have acted. This is not a decision to be rushed, but it is hard to believe that the issue can be sufficiently discussed by the community and by legislators ahead of the next election - especially if it comes early.

Changing the Face of the Party

David Cameron, British Conservative Leader, is off and running it would seem. A new report has shown that the number of female Conservatives in the British Parliament will more than treble when the next election is held.

The Daily Telegraph reports that currently only 17 Conservative MPs are women, less than 9 per cent of the party's total of 192 MPs. Labor has better stats, with 94 women out of 349 Labour MPs, or 27 per cent.

"A key plank of Mr Cameron's modernising agenda is changing the demographic profile of Tory politicians, trying to encourage women and people from minority ethnic groups to stand as Conservative candidates."

It is always interesting watching a party which has been out of power for a long time reform and rebuild itself, and we often see efforts such as this one. Given the current state of British voter sentiment, angry at best, one has to wonder if reports such as this one will make much difference. It would seem the election is Cameron's to lose following Brown's mixed tenure as Prime Minister.

Perhaps a conservative party leader closer to home could take some ideas from the fresh-faced Cameron.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/conservative/5685804/Female-Conservative-MPs-to-treble-at-next-election.html

The Most Important News You Won't Hear About Anywhere at All Today

You might not even realise, but yesterday the 2008 Senate election in the United States was finalised. That's right - remember Barack Obama winning, change arriving and everyone getting down to work? All but one Senate seat was confirmed.

Yesterday Minnesota incumbent Senator Norm Coleman conceded victory to former Saturday Night Live comic Al Franken (above), ending one of the longest election counts in US history. Coleman finally conceded after the Minnesota Supreme Court ruled 5-0 against his appeal for further recounts. It was feared that after spending over $1m (possibly much more) in legal costs, the Republican party would appeal the result to the Federal Courts.

Why does anyone care about just another Senate seat? Because Franken being seated in the chamber means the Democrats now have a 60-40 majority, the largest voting base the Democrats have had in a generation. In the US Senate sixty votes are required for a party to block filibusters. This means that if the Democrats stick together when voting the GOP has very little chance of stopping any legislation being passed.

This is important for the Democrats and Obama who have an ambitious program of legislation coming up. Think health care, the economy, the environment and Supreme Court appointments.

Read more from politico.com
www.politico.com/news/stories/0609/24383.html

Abbott on the Rise

Michelle Grattan in today's Age agrees with speculation that Tony Abbott is about to get a promotion to a more senior shadow portfolio, following his successful performance last week in the parliament.

Grattan points out that his is unlikely to get the job he really wants, Leader of Opposition Business in the House, as Christopher Pyne who holds the role currently is a strong supporter of Malcolm Turnbull. However, Abbott may get a senior economic portfolio which would bring him closer to the action.

Journalists like Annabel Crabb make a lot of jokes about Abbott, but he is a solid parliamentary performer and one of the best fighters Turnbull has.

Read Grattan and leave your comments
www.theage.com.au/national/abbott-set-to-rise-in-lib-reshuffle-20090629-d2jj.html

Bad News Day for Turnbull

Today's Newspoll, as well as two other major polls, would have made Malcolm Turnbull cry into his cereal this morning. Newspoll showed the Liberal leader in the biggest drop of support in 25 years, with voter satisfaction of his performance falling from 44 to 25 per cent since mid-June.

Without a serious contender for his job, Turnbull is safe in the leadership. He is working on a reshuffle, which can be expected in the next few weeks. Tony Abbott continues to do the Coalition's bidding, as the only person who really did well out of the Utegate debacle. Expect him to be moved to Shadow Immigration or another prominent spot in the limelight.

Denis Shanahan in The Australian explains the situation for both sides on the first day of the Winter break.

www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25704929-601,00.html

Meanwhile, Rudd continues to do the important work of the Nation.

http://news.ninemsn.com.au/entertainment/831180/brunos-crush-on-kevin-rudd

Why Public Transport is a Private Matter

Kenneth Davidson writes in The Age today about the inherent problems with public-private partnerships when it comes to key public services such as public transport. His piece shows some of the background to Melbourne's crumbling transport services and why the government's chosen operator might not be able to fix them as hoped.

One revealing paragraph appears below, but read the article and leave your comments please.

"Premier John Brumby's claim that the new rail and tram franchisees "are committed to putting the needs of Melbourne's train customers first" is nonsense. The directors of the franchisee companies have a legal responsibility to put the interests of their shareholders first."

http://business.theage.com.au/business/caught-in-a-public-transport-loop-20090628-d19j.html?page=-1

Some Thoughts From the Fourth Estate

In the wake of the so called Utegate scandal, every op-ed piece seems to have a bit each way on the fate of Malcolm Turnbull's leadership.

Peter Hartcher in today's Sydney Morning Herald is a perfect case in point. Hartcher really wants to write Turnbull's political obituary but knows that Turnbull can't be cast aside with the likes of Brendan Nelson, Simon Crean and Mark Latham. The media is obsessed with Turbull being brilliant and fearless, and can't help but think one day he will pull off something like his best-case-scenario version of Utegate and have a big win.

The suggestion that he should not have pursued the case against Rudd, and especially Swan who clearly has mislead parliament (see his dodging questions on AM during the week, below) shows a serious misunderstanding of the role of the opposition in Australian politics, and the limitations that the party out of power faces. Turnbull was coming off the back of a good week: Costello out of the way, polls moving the right way for him and the wrong way for Rudd.

Clearly he overshot massively - the results have been on the front page everyday to remind him and all the voters of Turbull's folly. However, any opposition leader worth their salt would have done the same and the Monday morning quarterbacks in the press know it.

Turnbull can take from this week the knowledge that without Costello - always the bridesmaid and never the bride - waiting in the wings to take his leadership from him, Turnbull is now more than ever playing with live ammunition and Kevin Rudd intends to return fire.

Parliament has been at fever pitch. Facebook and Twitter updates all week have been about students skipping study and work to tune in and see which dance Rudd and Turnbull will be doing today and what song Albanese will be singing. It was cruel and unusual punishment to compare Turnbull to former ALP Leader and political train wreck Mark Latham. Even Turnbull had to laugh at Albanese in full flight.

So where does that leave things as Canberra clears out for the winter recess?

Turnbull is weaker than he was, but remains in full control of his party, despite what "senior Liberals" tell the politicos day after day. Swan seems to be all but off the hook - amazingly to anyone who has followed closely his statements. Rudd had some great lines all week but continues to run the risk of looking very un-Prime Ministerial. This doesn't seem to worry Rudd or his heavy handed minders. All in all, back in their corners the political trends of the year continue. Rudd very popular and in control, with Gillard looking like a leader overseas, and the Liberals have the distinctive look of opposition.

As for the press - maybe take some inspiration from the Leader of the Opposition.

Read Hartcher's piece here, and please leave your thoughts:

www.smh.com.au/opinion/brilliant-and-fearless-but-paul-keating-was-right-about-turnbull-20090626-czt7.html?page=-1

Order out of Chaos

If you don't know about the education problems in America, or you don't know what a Charter school is, read this story from Time. It has long been a huge issue for political leaders but improvements have been few and far between.

"Charter-school people are entrepreneurs — we like challenges, and this industry needs people who can make order out of chaos."

http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1907203,00.html

"You're pitching, I'm catching."

Is the White House press corp running out of love for Barack Obama?

Michael Crowley points out that Obama is copping some flack from the talking heads of the DC beltway, but doesn't believe that this is a real change in his popularity as demonstrated when the press went after W in his second term.

Read his comments on the stimulus, mid-term elections (16 months away), and some tough questions about the Commander-in-Chief's smoking habit.

www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/jun/28/michael-crowley-barack-obama-usa

Above the Fray

Greg Sheridan from The Australian was part of an Australian delegation to Israel headed by Deputy Prime Minister Julia Gillard and former treasurer Peter Costello. He writes an interesting summary of Australia's involvement in the Middle East, and briefly discusses the current geo-political status of the region.

While Rudd, Swan and Turnbull fight like schoolboys, Sheridan writes that Gillard has remained above the fray due to her absence from Parliament this week, and has completed a successful overseas mission.

"Gillard deserves particular praise for attending the forum, as she was subject to a nasty campaign from the Left to try to intimidate her out of going. The Left internationally is going through one of its periodic bouts of trying to isolate Israel. This is one of those demented moments where allegedly progressive opinion believes it's the height of creativity to engage the mullah dictatorship in Iran, as it steals elections and pursues nuclear weapons, but wrong to visit a democratic ally such as Israel.

"Gillard got good press in Israel, where she is widely admired for her strong statements as acting prime minister in support of Israel's right to self-defence when it undertook the operation earlier this year in Gaza to stop the relentless launch of thousands of rockets from Gaza on to the civilian population of Israel's southern cities. Gillard's visit is significant in Australia-Israel relations, in the development of Gillard, and in the maturation of Labor's Left more generally (exceptions notwithstanding)."

All in all, this has been a very good year for Gillard's image as a steady hand while Rudd is overseas. She has had a few portfolio squabbles, and there are questions about her performance as Education Minister in particular, but she is clearly seen as a real and serious successor to Rudd when the time comes.

Read Sheridan and leave your comments:

www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25685538-25377,00.html

Resign! No You Resign!

The best Utegate Coverage for you:

http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/houserules/index.php/theaustralian/comments/anger_act_thats_just_plain_mad/

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25680668-12250,00.html

www.theage.com.au/national/a-story-that-just-keeps-on-biting-20090623-cver.html

www.smh.com.au/national/spells-curses-and-a-dollop-of-goblin-grech-20090624-cwvt.html